How to present an ERP estimate nobody wants to hear

Early in a programme, before any build, someone has to say what the ERP implementation will really cost and how long it will take. When that number is a long way from the business case, how you present it matters as much as the number itself.

I have built estimates like this using an organisation's own historic implementation data plus case studies of near-identical implementations elsewhere. The honest figure is often a long way from what the business case assumed.

The lesson I have learned is that a number that far from the plan rarely lands well as a single figure, in a meeting, with nobody prepared for it. When a number surprises people, the first instinct is to question the person holding it rather than the assumptions behind the plan.

A number that size needs socialising before it is presented, and it needs to arrive as a range with its drivers visible, not as a verdict.

How I present it now

1. Present a range, never a point. Show the assumptions that move it: entities, countries, integrations, data volumes, customisation.
2. Lead with the comparators. Benchmarks from comparable implementations are harder to dismiss than opinions.
3. Brief the sponsor privately first. Nobody should hear a number like that for the first time in a room full of colleagues.
4. Separate the estimate from the decision. "This is what it costs" is a different conversation from "this is whether we proceed".

Triangulate before you sign

Before contract award, compare three numbers: the supplier's price, a comparable implementation elsewhere, and a bottom-up estimate. Then add the client-side cost that suppliers never include: your programme team, backfill, change, testing and hypercare. If the three numbers disagree, the gap is the conversation to have before licences are committed, not after.

An honest estimate is only useful if the people who need it are ready to hear it.

Scott Armstrong is a programme director who recovers and delivers ERP, finance, data and CRM transformation for large organisations. Talk to Scott about your programme.